The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$13
Said $1.30· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“I calculate the intrinsic value per share or what I believe is the fair value of the stock today, I come to a price of $1.30.”@ 2:32 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Jul 3, 2025
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- expired
- Notes
- No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Lucid will continue to dilute shareholders for years, and even after a >30% drop YTD the shares remain overvalued versus a $1.30 DCF-based fair value.
Key arguments
- Q1 revenue only $235M on 3,319 deliveries.
- Share count grew from 2.3B to 3B year-over-year via dilution.
- Company unlikely to be self-sustaining until 2027 at earliest, possibly later.
- DCF puts present value of free cash flow at ~$1.58B, implying $1.30 per share fair value.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid Gravity is beginning to reach customers and studios.
- Products (Air, Gravity) are widely admired.
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Jul 3, 2025, 6:52 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 3:05 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- expired_without_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
expired without stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before73.7
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before21.6
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2026-07-04
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeMissing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $5.68.
AfterNo stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
- Outcome price
Before5.68
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterExpired without stated deadline
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $1.30
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.
Why we interpreted the confidence this way
Creator is a CFA publishing a DCF-based model with stated assumptions, but DCFs are highly sensitive to inputs and Lucid's losses make projections uncertain.