LCIDBearexpired
Parkev Tatevosian, CFATarget Price(split-adjusted)
$13
Said $1.30· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I calculate the intrinsic value per share or what I believe is the fair value of the stock today, I come to a price of $1.30.”@ 2:32 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid will continue to dilute shareholders for years, and even after a >30% drop YTD the shares remain overvalued versus a $1.30 DCF-based fair value.
Key arguments
- Q1 revenue only $235M on 3,319 deliveries.
- Share count grew from 2.3B to 3B year-over-year via dilution.
- Company unlikely to be self-sustaining until 2027 at earliest, possibly later.
- DCF puts present value of free cash flow at ~$1.58B, implying $1.30 per share fair value.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid Gravity is beginning to reach customers and studios.
- Products (Air, Gravity) are widely admired.
The call
- Date said
- Jul 3, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $21.60
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- expired
- Resolution price
- $5.68
- Return
- +73.7%
- Notes
- Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $5.68.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $5.68.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Creator is a CFA publishing a DCF-based model with stated assumptions, but DCFs are highly sensitive to inputs and Lucid's losses make projections uncertain.