TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$600
“If he hits two trillion which probably going to happen so two trillion is roughly 600 something dollars that can happen very soon in the next 12 months for sure.”@ 5:13 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe 1T comp plan is massively bullish: Elon pays nothing if he fails and shareholders gain 5-6x value if he succeeds. Host's DCF model puts fair cap at 2.7T today and 11T by 2028, implying 8.5T milestones are likely hit well ahead of the 2035 deadline.
Key arguments
- Milestones require 8.5T market cap, 400B EBITDA, 1M Optimus, 1M robotaxis.
- Model shows 8.5T cap hit by 2028 and full vesting by 2031.
- 12% dilution is accretive if stock rises 600%+ to hit targets.
- Elon's package brings his stake to the 25% he has said he requires.
- Fair-value DCF puts Tesla at 2.7T today, above current market cap.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Operational milestones (1M Optimus, 1M robotaxis) are harder than market-cap milestones.
- Optimus base-case scale slips to 2030; host flags conservative bias.
- 1T is record-breaking compensation and optically aggressive.
The call
- Date said
- Sep 5, 2025
- Timeframe
- next 12 months
- Deadline
- Sep 5, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $350.84
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $354.08
- Return
- +0.9%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 1% progress toward target $600. Price: $354.08.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 1% progress toward target $600. Price: $354.08.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Host says 'for sure' and ties it to the first comp-plan milestone.