TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$1,245
“I mean the fair future value of Tesla if things happen the way I predict on the substance side is 1,245 bucks. So my prediction is end of 2026 the fair future value of the stock will be $1,245.”@ 14:55 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is entering a new phase with three major verticals (EVs/energy, robotaxis, and Optimus humanoid robots) that will create massive value. The robotaxi business will overtake the core business by 2028, while Optimus will scale to enormous proportions in the 2030s.
Key arguments
- Robotaxis will replace car ownership at scale, especially in metropolitan areas
- Tesla's energy storage solutions can rapidly expand national grid capacity
- Optimus humanoid robots represent a multi-trillion dollar opportunity
- Tesla is uniquely positioned in utility-scale battery deployment
- Clear scaling path from 40K robotaxis in 2026 to millions by early 2030s
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Regulatory limitations in some states like California
- Operational complexity of deploying autonomous vehicles at scale
- FSD needs to be 10x-100x safer than humans before full deployment
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator acknowledges difficulty in predicting when markets understand valuations
- Distinguishes between fair value and stock price predictions
- Notes that many Wall Street analysts (including Cathie Wood/ARK) are not properly factoring in Optimus upside
The call
- Date said
- Nov 10, 2025
- Timeframe
- end of 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $445.23
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$866.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Presents detailed model and expresses strong conviction in fair value calculation