LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$25
Said $2.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“if these are indication of maybe impending news then yeah tomorrow might be a very good day so far during the overnight trading it is Up 3 C... we break towards that kind of 250 Mark”@ 2:27 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTwo large dark pool transactions after hours ($10.7M and $11.9M) within a 30-40 minute window strongly suggest institutional buying ahead of anticipated news. The speaker notes a similar pattern occurred on February 12th, which preceded a 13.59% gain the next day. Lucid's Q4 earnings guided toward multiple upcoming catalysts.
Key arguments
- ~$22.6M in dark pool after-hours purchases within a short time window – historically precedes major up days for LCID
- Similar February 12th dark pool transaction preceded 13.59% gain the next day
- Q4 earnings guided multiple catalysts: Gravity studio deliveries, potential partnerships, marketing pivot
The call
- Date said
- Mar 13, 2025
- Deadline
- Mar 13, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $20.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $20.30
- Return
- 0.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $25. Price: $20.30.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $25. Price: $20.30.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.