TSLA bullish call by The Intelligent Investor

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“personally I believe Tesla will eventually recover over the long run because Tesla's fundamentals first class management competitive advantage and long-term growth prospects have not changed”@ 6:19 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗

Thesis at the time

Bullish

Tesla stock has crashed 70% from its peak primarily due to Elon Musk's Twitter distraction and expected lower demand from macro headwinds. However, Tesla's fundamentals, management, competitive advantage, and long-term growth prospects remain intact, and the stock should recover when the Fed starts lowering rates in 2024.

Key arguments

Tesla's fundamentals and competitive advantages haven't changed despite the stock crash
Expected to deliver 1.34M vehicles in 2022 (43% growth) and 1.96M in 2023 (46% growth)
EPS expected to grow 35% in 2023 and 23% in 2024 despite macro headwinds
US EV tax credits starting January 2023 will benefit Tesla deliveries
Demand should recover when Fed starts lowering rates in 2024
Long-term goal to produce 20M vehicles annually by 2030 with 10-12 gigafactories
Aiming for 1000 gigawatt hours battery production capacity in US

Counter-arguments acknowledged

Elon Musk distracted by Twitter operations and may sell more Tesla shares
Expected recession and macro headwinds affecting EV demand in 2023-2024
High inflation and interest rates reducing consumer demand
Increasing competition in US, Europe, and China markets
Tesla offering discounts suggesting softened demand

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

Video presents both bear and bull cases for Tesla recovery
Analysis acknowledges this is educational content explaining concerns rather than making a definitive call
Discusses worst-case scenarios (Twitter bankruptcy) without predicting they will occur
Notes uncertainty about future CEO decisions and Twitter profitability timeline
Mentions 'will it recover' as a question to be explored rather than a prediction