TubeRank
LCIDBullpending
Lucid CityLucid City

Target Price

$30

as far as targets, bullcase, I do feel that uh despite everything, uh postreverse stock split, $30 is the high end.@ 10:57 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗

Thesis at the time

Mixed

Speaker presents his 2026 predictions: bull case of $30 (post-reverse split equivalent) driven by midsize platform hype, Uber robotaxi deployment (mid-2026), and Nvidia partnership updates; bear case of $2–$3 if consumer weakness continues and deliveries disappoint. Two dilution rounds are expected in Q2 and Q4 2026 totaling $2–$3 billion. Speaker thinks Lucid will fall short of 18,000 target and land at 16,000–17,000. The Gravity GT and Touring are seen as unlikely breakout successes. Midsize at $50K launching end of 2026 is the main bull catalyst but revenue won't materialize until 2027.

Key arguments

  • Bull case $30 driven by midsize platform hype, Uber deployment mid-2026, and Nvidia partnership updates
  • Bear case $2-$3 if consumers continue struggling and deliveries disappoint, with potential second reverse split
  • Two dilution rounds likely: ~$1-1.5B in Q2 2026 and ~$1B in Q4 2026
  • 2026 target expected to be 25,000 vehicles; AMP1 + AMP2 together can do 300K capacity so no excuses
  • Speaker expects Lucid to land at 16,000-17,000 for 2025, below 18,000 guide

Counter-arguments acknowledged

  • Midsize revenue won't materialize until 2027, so 2026 is purely hype-driven on that front
  • Gravity GT seen as likely a flop like Air GT — too expensive, limited demand

The call

Date said
Nov 22, 2025
Deadline
Dec 31, 2026
Price at prediction
$12.30
Current price (live)
$4.32$25.68 below target
Confidence
low
Specificity
specific

How it resolved

Status
pending