The call, on record
LCID bullish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$43.90
Said $4.39· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“the latest Morning Star report does show the fair market value for Lucid being $4.39”@ 7:08 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Jul 26, 2024
- Interpreted confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- expired
- Notes
- No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Shorts aggressively doubled down with 4.57M shares added net (approximately 80% of volume was short-related), dropping the stock 2.46% on no news. The speaker attributes this to possible PCE data reaction or unconfirmed insider information. Morningstar's fair value of $4.39 suggests meaningful upside, and Lucid's graphite supply agreement for battery supply chains shows forward planning. Options call consensus is above $4 next week while puts signal sub-$3 - a wide divergence reflecting high uncertainty.
Key arguments
- Shorts added 4.57M shares net - approximately 80% of total volume was short-driven
- No news or catalyst justifies the selloff - possible PCE data reaction or unknown information
- PCE core came in at 2.6% vs 2.5% forecast - slightly hotter than expected
- Morningstar fair value at $4.39 vs current ~$3.37 implies significant upside
- Graphite One supply agreement for batteries shows preparation for future production ramp
- Short interest at 27.5%, high utilization 91.67%, very overextended
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Put options consensus signals sub-$3 risk
- Rate cut probability remains relatively low at 11.9% for 50bps
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Jul 26, 2024, 3:50 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:46 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- expired_without_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
expired without stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before-79.13
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before33.8
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2026-04-20
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeMissing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $7.05.
AfterNo stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
- Outcome price
Before7.055
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterExpired without stated deadline
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $4.39
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.