The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Quoted text as recorded“anticipate roughly like a 25 to like 40% pullback that's historical that's what usually always happens similar to what happened in September so September when it was roughly around that $4 range and then it kind of stayed there up until 247”@ 6:46 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Jan 22, 2025
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored
- Notes
- There is no numerical target that can be objectively scored.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
LCID is down 5.24% on heavy algorithmic selling and short-seller pressure with 3.31M new short shares added — no news to justify the move. The stock has broken below the Alma, 100-day, and 200-day MAs, leaving only the super trend and 50-day MA (~$2.58) as the last technical defense. Historically, a break below the 50-day MA leads to a 25-40% decline. The speaker's only bull case is that Peter Raw delivers exceptional Q4 guidance with 25K+ production target and significant Gravity mix, which could deter shorts from continuing their assault.
Key arguments
- 3.31M shorts added with no news — pure algorithmic and short-driven selloff
- Stock already broke Alma, 100-day, and 200-day MAs — only 50-day MA remains as support
- Historical pattern: 50-day MA break leads to 25-40% decline (e.g., Sept 2024: $3.50 to $2.47)
- EV sector stuck in limbo on $7,500 credit uncertainty under Trump
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stock very oversold — good news or macro positive could trigger value investor rush
- Big money transactions still show more buys than sells at secondary market level
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Jan 22, 2025, 7:59 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:34 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- missing_target
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
missing target
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Reference price
Before26.7
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeNot recorded
AfterThere is no numerical target that can be objectively scored.
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterMissing target
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- Not recorded
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
There is no numerical target that can be objectively scored.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.