LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$30
Said $3· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“based on the bulls, there's a consensus for it to be roughly around that $3 range”@ 6:51 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishSpeaker highlights that shorts added roughly 75-80M shares via dark pool between March 31 and April 15 specifically to prevent Lucid from closing above the 50-day MA, which the speaker views as a sign of fear rather than fundamental weakness. A new 2x leveraged long ETF (LCDL) for Lucid was launched, which is characterized as a positive signal of growing market interest. Options consensus points to ~$3 this week and ~$4 around the May 6 earnings.
Key arguments
- Shorts increased ~75-80M shares via dark pool during March 31 – April 15, suppressing Lucid artificially
- Lucid successfully closed above 50-day MA, typically signaling 30-40% upside run historically
- Launch of Granite Shares 2x long Lucid ETF shows increasing institutional/retail interest
- Speaker notes no 2x leveraged-long ETF stock has ever gone bankrupt, implicitly countering bankruptcy risk argument
- Options consensus around ~$3 this week and ~$4 around earnings (May 9)
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -35.8 vs -15 forecast, causing broader market drag
- Supply-chain issues still constraining Gravity ramp-up
The call
- Date said
- Apr 28, 2025
- Deadline
- May 2, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $25.30
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $25.30
- Return
- 0.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $30. Price: $25.30.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $30. Price: $25.30.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.