AMZNBullpending
Tom NashTarget Price
$567
“If you model Amazon 2030, at its current growth rate, you get about $200 billion of net profit by 2030... you get a $567 per share, which is 144% upside from its current price of 232.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishNash calls Amazon the 'largest landlord on the planet' with the biggest bull case of the three mega-caps he covers, citing accelerating growth, doubling/quadrupling financials over five years, and vertical integration into training chips. He projects 144% upside to $567 per share by 2030 based on his profit and multiple assumptions.
Key arguments
- Revenue doubled from $380B to $720B and operating income more than tripled from $23B to nearly $80B over five years
- EBITDA margin doubled from 13% to 25% and net income quadrupled from $21B to $77B since 2020
- Amazon grew faster last quarter than in the past 15 quarters and has vertical integration with training chips
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Amazon has lagged the S&P 500 over the past five years despite strong fundamental growth
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- "Don't click nothing, does much, nothing, don't buy nothing" - disclaimer against following advice without personal research
- Upside projections are based on presenter's personal models, not guaranteed outcomes
- Strategy requires long-term commitment and emotional discipline
- Past performance and methodology do not guarantee future results
- Presenter acknowledges this is their personal investment style, not universal advice
The call
- Date said
- Jul 27, 2026
- Timeframe
- by 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Current price (live)
- $254.98$312.02 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
The speaker commits to this as his consistent model output throughout the video (repeated 144% figure), but frames it through 'if you model' assumptions on growth rate and PE multiple.
Source
Dips Don’t Last: 3 Stocks I’m Buying
Said on Jul 27, 2026Open on YouTube ↗