TSLABullpending
Randy KirkTarget Price
$450
“what's getting us to 450? what's getting us to 500 and I'm saying like that could happen purely on momentum in the market alone. Tesla can move back to 450 with like current course and speed.”@ 3:50 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla is positioned to reach $450-500 purely on market momentum with current trajectory, supported by strong fundamentals including 433+ robotaxis deployed, solid European sales, and growing FSD testimonials. The company's real-world AI capabilities in vehicles far exceed chatbot AI accuracy, positioning Tesla as a leader in AGI development through physical world data collection.
Key arguments
- Tesla has established $387 as a strong support floor with multiple bounces
- Bank of America raised price target to $460, representing 15-20% upside
- Tesla's AI in vehicles operates at 99.999% accuracy vs chatbots at ~96-97%
- Real-world data collection through vehicles gives Tesla AGI advantage over digital-only AI
- Robotaxi cost structure could be 20-40 cents per mile vs competitors at $3.41
- Strong week-over-week Europe sales and growing FSD testimonials from media personalities
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tesla needs more substantial news catalysts beyond community tracking
- Robotaxi scaling questions remain with only small deployment currently
- Bank of America's cost analysis appears flawed with $1.58/mile estimate
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Tesla has high beta (2-2.5x) to NASDAQ, making it volatile with market swings
- Robo taxi tracker tools have accuracy and timeliness issues
- Actual production catalysts needed beyond community tracking
- Past bot reveals have not been substantial market catalysts
- Uncertainty remains about whether Teslas will drive themselves at mass scale
- Current FSD testimonials are anecdotal rather than quantified metrics
The call
- Date said
- Mar 5, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $405.94
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$71.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Uses hedge language 'could happen' and 'can move' rather than definitive statements