TSLABearpending
The John Johnston LoungeTarget Price
$131
“he's expecting the company's shares to fall from today's price of around $365 to just $131 over the next year”@ 1:46 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishTesla faces deteriorating business fundamentals with overproduction problems, missed delivery expectations, and stalled robotaxi development that remains 'smoke and mirrors' with safety monitors rather than true autonomy. The company's growth promises haven't materialized while financial expectations have collapsed over multiple years.
Key arguments
- Tesla produced 50,000 more vehicles than it delivered in Q1 2026, indicating overproduction problems
- Delivery growth of only 6% compared to a low bar from factory shutdowns the previous year
- Robotaxi program appears to be 'smoke and mirrors' with safety monitors acting as drivers rather than true autonomy
- Material collapse in financial expectations over multiple years despite stock gains
- EPS expectations dropped dramatically from $368 to 30 cents for Q1
- Energy division numbers came in lower than expected
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Some analysts have been bearish on Tesla for years and been wrong during the stock's rise
- Elevated markets and bubbles can last longer than expected
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Host explicitly states 'this is not investment advice'
- Host acknowledges 'Analysts say things all the time'
- Host notes personal bias: 'people do know what I think of the company'
- Host expresses skepticism about robo-taxi progress rather than certainty
- Multiple analyst predictions cited rather than host's own prediction
The call
- Date said
- Apr 7, 2026
- Timeframe
- over the next year
- Deadline
- Mar 31, 2027
- Price at prediction
- $346.65
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$247.90 above target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Analyst prediction from HSBC with specific price target and timeframe, but YouTuber is reporting rather than endorsing