LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$30
Said $3· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“you're starting to see some optimism for it to be above $3 by December so good to see some optimism coming back into Lucid”@ 5:34 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid surged 5% on large institutional buys ($434K, $930K transactions) as value investors identified it as one of the few stocks that missed the broader market rally (S&P up 31% YoY vs Lucid down 49%). The stock is now clearly above the Alma indicator for the first time in weeks, with MACD turning bullish and a significant gap to the next resistance at $2.80. Options show growing $3 consensus for December.
Key arguments
- Multiple large institutional buy transactions ($434K, $930K) as value hunters step in
- Lucid missed the S&P rally (S&P +31% YoY, LCID -49%) — significant underperformance creates catch-up potential
- Stock is clearly above Alma indicator for first time in weeks with bullish MACD signal
- Wide gap to next resistance at $2.80 provides room to run
- Car & Driver named Lucid 2024 top sedan — product quality remains excellent
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts increased 690K shares on today's green day
- Executives confirmed Gravity deliveries starting 2025 (not 2024) — some investor disappointment
The call
- Date said
- Nov 25, 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $21.70
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $30.20
- Return
- +39.2%
- Notes
- Target ≥$30 reached on 2024-12-20. Price: $30.20. Return: +39.2%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$30 reached on 2024-12-20. Price: $30.20. Return: +39.2%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.