LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$26.90
Said $2.69· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I do feel for this upcoming week, it'll trade between this R2 and this R1 unless there's some negativity from tariffs or something along those lines. But 269 and 255 between that range is where I feel it might most likely land.”@ 9:12 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishSpeaker frames the coming week as a potential inflection point for Lucid: the stock has repeatedly tested and been rejected by the 50-day MA ($248), but a sustained two-day close above it historically triggers 30%+ moves. Multiple macro catalysts (Tesla earnings, potential US-China tariff progress, money supply data, multiple Fed speakers) could provide the push needed. The speaker's price forecast for the week is $2.55-$2.69 range unless macro deteriorates significantly.
Key arguments
- Five consecutive days of flirting with 50-day MA ($248) shows strong buying pressure
- Historical pattern: two closes above 50-day MA triggers 30%+ run for Lucid
- If Tesla gives positive guidance, Lucid could benefit via sector sentiment
- US-China tariff resolution optimism could drive a market-wide surge benefiting Lucid
- Mark Rawlinson's review of Gravity quality signals are good, Dream Edition interest without website listing is a positive
- Options show no extreme short walls this week (only 6,000 at $2.50, 9,000 at $3)
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Michigan consumer sentiment data on Friday has prompted market pullbacks in 5 of 5 recent readings
- Stock has been repeatedly rejected at 50-day MA — pattern could repeat
- Ford raised vehicle prices due to tariffs; Lucid maintaining prices only until end of May
The call
- Date said
- Apr 20, 2025
- Deadline
- Apr 25, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $23.20
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $25
- Return
- +7.8%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 49% progress toward target $26.9. Price: $25.00.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 49% progress toward target $26.9. Price: $25.00.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.