The call, on record
LCID neutral call
Target range as extracted
$1.93–
Quoted text as recorded“it will be closing somewhere in between this S2 and this S3, probably around that $2 range”@ 7:31 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Aug 10, 2025
- Timeframe
- this upcoming week
- Extracted deadline
- Aug 15, 2025
- Stored reference price
- $21.30
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $21.80
- Notes
- The exact final regular-session close on 2025-08-15 was $21.80; the source required a close inside the inclusive $19.3–$21.7 range. Earlier prices and intraday highs/lows do not affect this result.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
After breaking below the 50-day moving average following earnings, LCID faces a technical week with limited catalysts and the Aug 18 reverse stock split shareholder meeting creating negative sentiment pressure. The speaker expects shorts to exploit the fear heading into the meeting and anticipates LCID closing near the $2 range absent positive catalysts.
Key arguments
- Stock broke below 50-day moving average post-earnings — historically leads to 30% swing
- Aug 18 shareholder meeting for reverse stock split vote will increase negative sentiment
- Shorts have not let up — 400M shares shorted, 31.91% of float
- Q3 gravity deliveries expected to ramp but Lucid needs to execute to justify the stock
- Tax credit ($7,500 lease) eliminating in Q4 — Lucid must market aggressively now
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- September rate cut now near 100% probability — positive for growth stocks
- Stochastic RSI very oversold — good news could cause sharp reversal
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Aug 10, 2025, 1:30 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 18, 2026, 8:53 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Oct 18, 2026, 8:49 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-18.1
- Outcome reason code
- endpoint_close_miss
Recent record changes 7 shown
Oct 18, 2026, 8:53 AM UTC
endpoint close miss
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-18.1
- Reference price
BeforeNot recorded
After21.3
- Reference observation time
BeforeNot recorded
After2025-08-08T23:59:59.999+00:00
- Reference price source
BeforeNot recorded
Afteryahoo_daily
- Recorded outcome date
BeforeNot recorded
After2025-08-15
- Outcome explanation
BeforeRetrospective source correction; old outcome withdrawn pending canonical resolution.
AfterThe exact final regular-session close on 2025-08-15 was $21.80; the source required a close inside the inclusive $19.3–$21.7 range. Earlier prices and intraday highs/lows do not affect this result.
- Outcome observation time
BeforeNot recorded
After2025-08-15T23:59:59.999+00:00
- Outcome price
BeforeNot recorded
After21.8
- Outcome price source
BeforeNot recorded
Afteryahoo_daily
- Outcome reason
BeforeClaim changed
AfterEndpoint close miss
- Outcome status
Beforepending
Aftermiss
Oct 18, 2026, 8:49 AM UTC
corrected
- Moderator review status
Beforeunreviewed
Afterapproved
- Reviewed at
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-18T08:49:16.799175+00:00
Oct 18, 2026, 8:49 AM UTC
claim changed
- Direction
Beforebear
Afterneutral
- Evaluation kind
BeforeNot recorded
Afterclose_range
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.5
AfterNot recorded
- Source quote
BeforeI do feel that it will be closing somewhere in between this S2 and this S3, probably around that $2 range in all fairness.
Afterit will be closing somewhere in between this S2 and this S3, probably around that $2 range
- Recorded outcome date
Before2026-10-06
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome explanation
BeforeThe claim refers to a closing price, but its exact session or settlement semantics are not supported. Intraday quotes cannot establish its outcome.
AfterRetrospective source correction; old outcome withdrawn pending canonical resolution.
- Outcome reason
BeforeUnsupported close semantics
AfterClaim changed
- Moderator review status
Beforeapproved
Afterunreviewed
- Reviewed at
Before2026-04-26T09:32:48.480843+00:00
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome status
Beforeunverifiable
Afterpending
- Target range: upper bound
BeforeNot recorded
After2.17
- Target range: lower bound
BeforeNot recorded
After1.93
- Target price
Before2
AfterNot recorded
- Original timeframe wording
BeforeNot recorded
Afterthis upcoming week
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
unsupported close semantics
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before0.46
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before21.9
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-08-15
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeDeadline passed. Only 5% progress toward target $20. Price: $21.80.
AfterThe claim refers to a closing price, but its exact session or settlement semantics are not supported. Intraday quotes cannot establish its outcome.
- Outcome price
Before21.8
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterUnsupported close semantics
- Outcome status
Beforemiss
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 8 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- $21.30
- Aug 8, 2025, 11:59 PM UTC · yahoo_daily
- Target as extracted
- $1.93–$2.17
- Stated deadline as extracted
- Aug 15, 2025
- Recorded outcome date
- Aug 15, 2025
- Outcome price observation
- $21.80
- Aug 15, 2025, 11:59 PM UTC · yahoo_daily
Stored explanation
The exact final regular-session close on 2025-08-15 was $21.80; the source required a close inside the inclusive $19.3–$21.7 range. Earlier prices and intraday highs/lows do not affect this result.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.