The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price
$16.50
Quoted text as recorded“I think even in the videos leading up to today, I was saying that they're going to be probably within that 16 to 18, and that's probably where they will land. Most likely, they'll probably be able to do about 5,500, I would assume”@ 66:42 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Nov 5, 2025
- Latest provider quote
- $3.39As of Nov 4, 2026, 5:51 PM UTC. May be delayed; does not resolve this call.
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
Tracking the outcome
- Status
- pending
- Notes
- No stated deadline is available. This call remains open without a scored outcome; its horizon label is not a deadline.
Email me when this call is scored
We’ll email you the result of this call and of the other tracked LCID calls as they resolve. No account needed.
Used only for these updates. Privacy
Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Live earnings coverage shows Lucid guided 18,000 total 2025 production (lower end of prior 18–20k range). With 9,966 units through Q3, they need ~8,000+ in Q4 — a record by a wide margin. The speaker sees this as nearly impossible in a slowing environment. However, the stock moves up every time Nvidia is mentioned. Dilution is expected within a month given $1.6B cash and $1.1B quarterly operations burn.
Key arguments
- Need ~8,000+ units in Q4 to hit 18,000 target — nearly double any prior quarter record
- Cash at $3B (+ $1.2B credit), burning ~$1.1B/quarter from operations, dilution expected within a month
- Nvidia partnership is the dominant market catalyst — stock visibly moved up each time analyst mentioned it
- Eric Bach fired — another OG gone; continuing pattern of executive churn
- Management skipped two key retail questions: bankruptcy probability and executive comp justification
- Supply chain crises: magnets, aluminum, chips — all three hit in 2025
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- DDTL raised to $2B extends runway into first half 2027
- Mark showed more natural, transparent communication style vs prior CEOs
- Gravity becoming majority of Q4 production is structurally positive for ASP
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:22 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:34 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- awaiting_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
awaiting stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before12.01
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before17.24
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-11-13
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome explanation
BeforeTarget ≤$16.5 reached on 2025-11-13. Price: $15.17. Return: +12.0%.
AfterNo stated deadline is available. This call remains open without a scored outcome; its horizon label is not a deadline.
- Outcome price
Before15.17
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterAwaiting stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterpending
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.