LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$9.50
“if it does break below that 10, then most likely we could see some crazy price action, maybe retesting that 940 950 range.”@ 6:30 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker sees Lucid's end-of-March $3K discount on Air as smart inventory management ahead of earnings, since investors will scrutinize excess inventory reduction. However, the stock is stuck between the 10-day and 50-day moving averages with no institutional buying. Bears targeting $9-$9.50, bulls targeting $11. Breaking below 10-day MA could trigger a retest of $9.40-$9.50.
Key arguments
- Air $3K promotion smart for clearing inventory before earnings scrutiny
- Air demand has peaked per management — Gravity and mid-size are the future
- Only one secondary market transaction — a sell — shows no institutional interest
- Shorts returning 56K shares at 31.95% of float — slightly self-correcting
- LCID stuck between 10-day and 50-day moving averages — breakout direction key
- Bears targeting $9-$9.50; bulls targeting $11
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts returning is slightly bullish vs other growth stocks where shorts are increasing
- Options net premiums slightly positive — marginal bullish bias
- Bulls still see $11 as achievable if macro clears
The call
- Date said
- Mar 24, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $10.36
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $9.40
- Return
- +9.3%
- Notes
- Target ≤$9.5 reached on 2026-03-27. Price: $9.40. Return: +9.3%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$9.5 reached on 2026-03-27. Price: $9.40. Return: +9.3%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.