LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$10
“Morgan Stanley, Andrew, who has a 58% success rating... from 30 down to 10.”@ 1:05 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedLucid drops 6.6% after Morgan Stanley downgrades from $30 to $10 (from $3 pre-split), citing ongoing dilution risk and the expectation of continued losses until approximately 2032. However, the same day Lucid announced it will appear at the 53rd NASDAQ Investor Conference in association with Morgan Stanley on Dec 10 — the host sees this as awkward timing but notes the conference could be a positive catalyst if Mark confirms 18k production. Stock is below 10-day moving average and technically overbought on stochastic RSI.
Key arguments
- Morgan Stanley downgrades to $10 sell citing ongoing dilution risk through ~2032
- Irony: Lucid announced NASDAQ conference appearance in association with Morgan Stanley the same day
- Analysts see continued losses requiring dilution until profitability around 2032
- Conference on Dec 10 could be positive if Mark confirms 2025 production target
- Stock is below 10-day moving average; stochastic RSI is overbought — momentum vulnerable
- 89.9% probability of 25bp cut on Dec 10 — uncertainty around Powell's commentary is the bigger risk
- Bulls targeted $13-13.50; bears see $12.50 or lower as likely
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Big money was buying the dip on secondary market (multiple transactions visible)
- Lucid's willingness to do fireside chats may signal confidence in hitting 18k target
The call
- Date said
- Dec 8, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $12.76
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $9.73
- Return
- +23.8%
- Notes
- Target ≤$10 reached on 2026-01-20. Price: $9.73. Return: +23.7%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$10 reached on 2026-01-20. Price: $9.73. Return: +23.7%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.