The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price
$10
Quoted text as recorded“Morgan Stanley, Andrew, who has a 58% success rating... from 30 down to 10.”@ 1:05 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Dec 8, 2025
- Latest provider quote
- $3.36As of Nov 4, 2026, 5:43 PM UTC. May be delayed; does not resolve this call.
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Tracking the outcome
- Status
- pending
- Notes
- No stated deadline is available. This call remains open without a scored outcome; its horizon label is not a deadline.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Lucid drops 6.6% after Morgan Stanley downgrades from $30 to $10 (from $3 pre-split), citing ongoing dilution risk and the expectation of continued losses until approximately 2032. However, the same day Lucid announced it will appear at the 53rd NASDAQ Investor Conference in association with Morgan Stanley on Dec 10 — the host sees this as awkward timing but notes the conference could be a positive catalyst if Mark confirms 18k production. Stock is below 10-day moving average and technically overbought on stochastic RSI.
Key arguments
- Morgan Stanley downgrades to $10 sell citing ongoing dilution risk through ~2032
- Irony: Lucid announced NASDAQ conference appearance in association with Morgan Stanley the same day
- Analysts see continued losses requiring dilution until profitability around 2032
- Conference on Dec 10 could be positive if Mark confirms 2025 production target
- Stock is below 10-day moving average; stochastic RSI is overbought — momentum vulnerable
- 89.9% probability of 25bp cut on Dec 10 — uncertainty around Powell's commentary is the bigger risk
- Bulls targeted $13-13.50; bears see $12.50 or lower as likely
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Big money was buying the dip on secondary market (multiple transactions visible)
- Lucid's willingness to do fireside chats may signal confidence in hitting 18k target
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Dec 8, 2025, 7:20 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:21 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- awaiting_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
awaiting stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before23.75
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before12.76
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2026-01-20
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome explanation
BeforeTarget ≤$10 reached on 2026-01-20. Price: $9.73. Return: +23.7%.
AfterNo stated deadline is available. This call remains open without a scored outcome; its horizon label is not a deadline.
- Outcome price
Before9.73
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterAwaiting stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterpending
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