LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$18.61
“potentially that could take it to at least that 50-day moving average. And so that's sitting right now at 1861.”@ 4:05 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid rose 1.87% on Black Friday with shorts returning 417K shares despite low holiday volume, suggesting active short covering. Speaker believes foreign (likely Canadian via RBC) entities are the primary shorts. The price action is beginning to mirror September's algorithmic-driven run, and the 50-day moving average at $18.61 is a potential target. Institutions were buying on secondary market today.
Key arguments
- Shorts returning 417K shares on low-volume holiday Friday signals short covering and validates the green day
- Short activity on US holidays suggests foreign (likely Canadian/RBC) entities are the primary shorts
- Stock above 10-day moving average signaling growing demand
- Institutions buying on secondary market today — opposite of prior recent days where they were selling
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- No concrete Lucid news or catalysts today — purely macro/algorithmic driven
The call
- Date said
- Nov 28, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $13.63
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $10.59
- Return
- -22.3%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $18.61. Price: $10.59.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $18.61. Price: $10.59.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.