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Tesla (TSLA)

The call, on record

TSLA bearish call

Recorded from Mark Spiegel’s public commentary. Review the evidence behind the call and its outcome.
TSLABearexpired
Mark SpiegelMark Spiegel

Target Price(split-adjusted)

$11.67

Said $35· today's shares after the 5-for-1 (Aug 2020) and 3-for-1 (Aug 2022) splits

Submitted record · moderator reviewed. The quote is source evidence; the structured call and thesis are TubeRank’s interpretation.
Quoted text as recorded“my target is maybe 30 40”

Our interpretation

Source published
Nov 17, 2021
Interpreted confidence
medium
Specificity
specific

Why this call is unscored

Status
expired
Notes
No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.

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Evidence and source

The Hedge Fund Manager Addicted To Shorting Tesla
Published on Nov 17, 2021Open on YouTube

Our summary of the thesis

Strongly Bearish

Structured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.

Mark Spiegel believes Tesla is in a massive bubble and will collapse dramatically. He thinks the stock will fall to $30-40 per share, representing about 95% downside from current levels.

Key arguments

  • Tesla is part of a massive stock market bubble
  • Competition from legacy automakers will hurt Tesla
  • High P/E ratios will compress when inflation takes off
  • The stock has risen 20-fold since 2014 and is due for a collapse

Counter-arguments acknowledged

  • Tesla has been profitable since 2019
  • The company will survive (no longer predicting bankruptcy)

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

  • Video is a retrospective analysis of past performance, not a forward-looking prediction
  • Focuses on documenting Spiegel's failed strategy rather than making new market calls
  • Historical underperformance data is as of February 2021 with acknowledgment that conditions worsened afterward

About this record

Reviewed by a moderator

Submitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.

Source published
Nov 17, 2021, 12:34 PM UTC
First recorded by TubeRank
Apr 20, 2026, 9:13 AM UTC
Record last updated
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
Moderator review recorded
Not recorded
Transcript provenance
YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
Recorded analysis processor/source label
claude-sonnet-4-20250514
This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
Extraction pipeline version
v1.0.0
Outcome methodology version
2026-10-06.5
Outcome reason code
expired_without_stated_deadline
Publication is when the video was released; recording is when TubeRank added this call. They are not interchangeable. Legacy records can lack version and observation metadata. Dates are shown in UTC.
Recent record changes 4 shown

  1. Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC

    corrected

    Outcome methodology version

    Before2026-10-06.4

    After2026-10-06.5

  2. Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC

    corrected

    Outcome methodology version

    Before2026-10-06.2

    After2026-10-06.4

  3. Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC

    corrected

    Outcome methodology version

    Before2026-10-06.1

    After2026-10-06.2

  4. Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC

    expired without stated deadline

    Outcome methodology version

    BeforeNot recorded

    After2026-10-06.1

    Direction-adjusted price movement (%)

    Before-10.36

    AfterNot recorded

    Reference price

    Before363.00333

    AfterNot recorded

    Recorded outcome date

    Before2026-04-21

    After2026-10-06

    Outcome explanation

    BeforeMissing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.

    AfterNo stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.

    Outcome price

    Before400.62

    AfterNot recorded

    Outcome reason

    BeforeNot recorded

    AfterExpired without stated deadline

Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.

Methodology and limitationsReport a correction
Stored outcome evidence
Stored reference price
Not recorded
Not recorded · provider not recorded
Target as extracted
$35
Stated deadline as extracted
None recorded
Recorded outcome date
Oct 6, 2026
Outcome price observation
Not recorded
Not recorded · provider not recorded

Stored explanation

No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.

Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.

Why we interpreted the confidence this way

Uses hedge word 'maybe' but represents his long-term conviction target

View full video analysisView YouTuber profile