TSLABearexpired
Mark SpiegelTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$11.67
Said $35· today's shares after the 5-for-1 (Aug 2020) and 3-for-1 (Aug 2022) splits
“my target is maybe 30 40”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishMark Spiegel believes Tesla is in a massive bubble and will collapse dramatically. He thinks the stock will fall to $30-40 per share, representing about 95% downside from current levels.
Key arguments
- Tesla is part of a massive stock market bubble
- Competition from legacy automakers will hurt Tesla
- High P/E ratios will compress when inflation takes off
- The stock has risen 20-fold since 2014 and is due for a collapse
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tesla has been profitable since 2019
- The company will survive (no longer predicting bankruptcy)
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Video is a retrospective analysis of past performance, not a forward-looking prediction
- Focuses on documenting Spiegel's failed strategy rather than making new market calls
- Historical underperformance data is as of February 2021 with acknowledgment that conditions worsened afterward
The call
- Date said
- Nov 17, 2021
- Price at prediction
- $363.00
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- expired
- Resolution price
- $400.62
- Return
- -10.4%
- Notes
- Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Uses hedge word 'maybe' but represents his long-term conviction target
Source
The Hedge Fund Manager Addicted To Shorting Tesla
Said on Nov 17, 2021Open on YouTube ↗