TSLABullhit
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$488
“I believe it's extremely likely given all the bullish stuff that's going on with Tesla, that we will exceed last year's high this year. So that's for me like a little bit like the bottom end of my expectations. 488.”@ 7:22 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla's fundamentals support a fair value near $844 with a gut-feel year-end target of $580 driven by 10-city robotaxi rollout, but a likely September-October market correction could drive TSLA below $300 on beta-2 correlation, providing a tactical buying opportunity.
Key arguments
- Fair value ~$844 per share based on 10-year DCF.
- End-of-2026 fair value grows to ~$1,400 in base model.
- 10 cities robotaxi rollout likely in 2025; Austin likely drops safety driver in November.
- Market is seasonally weak in September and early October.
- Seasonal corrections are historically recovered by end of October.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- It's possible the seasonal correction does not occur.
- A beta-2 Tesla could drop 30% on a 15% market correction, taking shares from $360 to $270.
- No guaranteed scenario; author emphasizes probabilistic thinking.
The call
- Date said
- Aug 19, 2025
- Timeframe
- year-end 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $329.31
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $489.88
- Return
- +48.8%
- Notes
- Target ≥$488 reached on 2025-12-16. Price: $489.88. Return: +48.8%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$488 reached on 2025-12-16. Price: $489.88. Return: +48.8%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Host describes as extremely likely and bottom end of expectations.