LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$30
“if things really go according to plan... that high 26 or so or possibly even at 30 if things really go according to plan”@ 5:41 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid closed Friday at $24.77, just above the 200-day moving average. The speaker sees two major catalysts this week: (1) Q3 production/delivery numbers expected Oct 6-8 where 5,500+ deliveries would be bullish, and (2) Trump's consideration of significant US auto tariff relief, which could dramatically benefit Lucid given 15%+ guided margin hit. Short DTC at 3.15 days signals squeeze potential if a positive catalyst hits.
Key arguments
- Q3 numbers expected this week; 5,500+ deliveries would confirm ability to hit 18-20K year target
- Trump considering 'significant' US auto tariff relief - could benefit Lucid dramatically given 15%+ margin hit
- Closed above 200-day moving average Friday for first time since July 29; very bullish technical signal
- Short interest at 38.3M (30.21% of float); DTC 3.15 days signals squeeze conditions possible
- If numbers above 5,500, target is between R2-R3 on 1-day chart (high $26s-$30 range)
- Tesla Q3 numbers were phenomenal; positive EV sentiment could carry to Lucid
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If numbers below 5,500, consolidation back to R1-pivot range is likely
- Tariff relief wording is very vague; no concrete details announced
The call
- Date said
- Oct 5, 2025
- Deadline
- Oct 11, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $24.02
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $20.98
- Return
- -12.7%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $30. Price: $20.98.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $30. Price: $20.98.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.