LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$15
Said $1.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“the La wave technicals leading into today was pointing for it to kind of hit that mid to high ones so if it does break below this 214 and stay there then that is going to come to fruition”@ 7:31 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishThe departure of Lucid's VP of Marketing — the eighth executive to leave in 2024 — at a critical pre-Gravity launch window is a major red flag. The speaker argues Peter Rawlinson should be moved to CTO-only and a business-oriented CEO brought in, analogous to the Starbucks CEO change that drove a 15% stock gain. Options flow is 59% bearish with consensus for sub-$2 and even sub-$1.50 by June.
Key arguments
- 8th executive departure in 2024 — repeated VP turnover is not normal
- No marketing VP in place at critical Gravity pre-launch period
- 59% of options flow is bearish; $572K bet against Lucid between 10:30-10:35
- Someone betting on sub-$1.50 by June 2025
- Elliott Wave technicals projecting mid-to-high $1 range
- CEO should be replaced with business-oriented leader — speaker cites Starbucks +15% on CEO change
- Trump killing $7,500 EV credit would hurt midsize (path to profitability) in late 2026
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts returning 54K shares — some returning after prior short push
- RF Lafferty issued $4 buy rating the previous day
The call
- Date said
- Nov 14, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $20.80
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $28.70
- Return
- -38.0%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $15. Price: $28.70.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $15. Price: $28.70.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.