The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$15
Said $1.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“the La wave technicals leading into today was pointing for it to kind of hit that mid to high ones so if it does break below this 214 and stay there then that is going to come to fruition”@ 7:31 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Nov 14, 2024
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored: condition
- Notes
- The claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
Strongly BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
The departure of Lucid's VP of Marketing — the eighth executive to leave in 2024 — at a critical pre-Gravity launch window is a major red flag. The speaker argues Peter Rawlinson should be moved to CTO-only and a business-oriented CEO brought in, analogous to the Starbucks CEO change that drove a 15% stock gain. Options flow is 59% bearish with consensus for sub-$2 and even sub-$1.50 by June.
Key arguments
- 8th executive departure in 2024 — repeated VP turnover is not normal
- No marketing VP in place at critical Gravity pre-launch period
- 59% of options flow is bearish; $572K bet against Lucid between 10:30-10:35
- Someone betting on sub-$1.50 by June 2025
- Elliott Wave technicals projecting mid-to-high $1 range
- CEO should be replaced with business-oriented leader — speaker cites Starbucks +15% on CEO change
- Trump killing $7,500 EV credit would hurt midsize (path to profitability) in late 2026
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts returning 54K shares — some returning after prior short push
- RF Lafferty issued $4 buy rating the previous day
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Nov 14, 2024, 8:01 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:40 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- unverified_condition
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
unverified condition
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before-37.98
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before20.8
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-02-12
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeHorizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $15. Price: $28.70.
AfterThe claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
- Outcome price
Before28.7
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterUnverified condition
- Outcome status
Beforemiss
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $1.50
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.