TSLABullunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“I assume 10,000 cyber caps by end of this year, I stick to my original prediction.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe speaker built a DCF-based robotaxi valuation model showing that Tesla's Cybercab/robotaxi division alone could be worth roughly $440 per share, more than the entire current market value of Tesla. He argues the stock is deeply undervalued because the market has not priced in the robotaxi ramp, and expects a return to all-time highs once the earnings trajectory becomes visible to Wall Street.
Key arguments
- A discounted cash flow model of the robotaxi division alone yields a present value of about $440 per share, exceeding the entire current Tesla market value.
- Robotaxi annualized earnings run-rate could go from 7% of Tesla's 2025 total earnings to nearly 100% within about a year (Q3 2026 to end of 2027).
- Even a conservative one-year-forward earnings projection based on early Cybercab fleet numbers implies meaningful share price appreciation.
- Cybercab production ramp and infrastructure buildout are leading indicators supporting a rapid, exponential scale-up rather than a slow linear one.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- The model bakes in a 20% probability of total failure of the robotaxi thesis.
- Acknowledges the 10,000 cybercab figure could instead be 2,000 or 5,000 by year end, which would simply push the same trajectory back a quarter.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Model uses conservative assumptions ($1 per mile pricing, 200 paid miles per day)
- Robotaxi launch timeline and commercial viability remain uncertain
- Current pricing and operational metrics are subject to change
- Model is derivative of broader Tesla valuation model with inherent modeling risks
- Acknowledges market skepticism and 'mockery' of Tesla bull thesis
The call
- Date said
- Aug 27, 2026
- Timeframe
- by end of this year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker reiterates personal commitment to the number ('I stick to my original prediction') but also hedges by saying he doesn't care if he's wrong since it would just be delayed a quarter.
Source
How Much Worth Is Tesla Robotaxi?
Said on Aug 27, 2026Open on YouTube ↗