TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$1,700
“In 2026 when the share price should be at 1,700 in my opinion.”@ 14:05 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishGary Black's sale of all Tesla on P/E grounds is a fundamental misunderstanding — P/E cannot capture a company about to unlock massive new cash flow streams from robotaxi and Optimus. Bhakdi's DCF model gives fair share prices of $1,000 in 2025 and $1,700 in 2026.
Key arguments
- P/E ratios are current/backward-looking and wrong for disruptive innovation.
- Tesla is a mega-startup unlocking two new revenue streams vastly larger than its core business.
- Robotaxi projection: 1,000 units in 2025, 100,000 in 2026, 750,000 in 2027, 2M in 2028.
- By 2028 EPS should be ~$19 (not $7 as Gary projects) due to exponential robotaxi effect.
- Waymo is a joke and no other company can compete; multi-trillion dollar TAM only Tesla can capture.
- ASI arrives latest in 24 months, completely disrupting auto market.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Gary's view that this valuation looks stretched on traditional metrics.
- Comparable-history argument — no $1T market cap company has had 100x forward PE.
- Predictability matters to portfolio managers for sizing positions.
The call
- Date said
- Jun 2, 2025
- Timeframe
- 2026 fair share price
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $342.69
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$1,321.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Model-based target with explicit growth assumptions.