Behind the video
Why Gary Black is WRONG on Tesla Stock
The thesis, the calls, and the words behind them. Play a quote to hear it in the original video.
Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 85%
Overall Thesis
Bhakdi rebuts Gary Black's decision to sell all Tesla, arguing that P/E analysis is the wrong framework for a disruptive innovator like Tesla. Using his own DCF model assuming 100k robotaxis by end of 2026 and 4M+ by 2029, he projects fair share prices of $1,000 in 2025 and $1,700 in 2026.
Narratives
TSLATeslaGary Black's sale of all Tesla on P/E grounds is a fundamental misunderstanding — P/E cannot capture a company about to unlock massive new cash flow streams from robotaxi and Optimus. Bhakdi's DCF model gives fair share prices of $1,000 in 2025 and $1,700 in 2026.
Key Arguments
- P/E ratios are current/backward-looking and wrong for disruptive innovation.
- Tesla is a mega-startup unlocking two new revenue streams vastly larger than its core business.
- Robotaxi projection: 1,000 units in 2025, 100,000 in 2026, 750,000 in 2027, 2M in 2028.
- By 2028 EPS should be ~$19 (not $7 as Gary projects) due to exponential robotaxi effect.
- Waymo is a joke and no other company can compete; multi-trillion dollar TAM only Tesla can capture.
- ASI arrives latest in 24 months, completely disrupting auto market.
Risks acknowledged
- Gary's view that this valuation looks stretched on traditional metrics.
- Comparable-history argument — no $1T market cap company has had 100x forward PE.
- Predictability matters to portfolio managers for sizing positions.
Predictions (1)
BullTarget: $1,7002026 fair share price
Not scoredDetails
Analyzed with manual_claude_session | Extraction manual_v1 | Cost: —