The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$20.70
Said $2.07· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“my prediction for Wednesday, how the market's going to take the earnings, I feel like it will touch this 207. So, that's going to be the next strong support.”@ 13:48 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Aug 6, 2025
- Extracted deadline
- Aug 7, 2025
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored: deadline
- Notes
- The stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
Email me when LCID calls resolve
When a tracked LCID call is scored — hit, miss or partial — we’ll email you the result. No account needed.
Used only for these updates. Privacy
Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
The speaker does a full Q2 earnings breakdown and concludes it was one of Lucid's worst ever. The company triple-missed estimates, lowered production guidance to 18-20K, had supply chain issues due to magnets, showed a lack of meaningful new catalysts (no new partnerships beyond Uber), and management sounded unprepared. Dilution is expected tail-end Q3/Q4. Positives include maintaining midsize timeline for late 2026 and Uber confirming they reached out to Lucid.
Key arguments
- Triple miss: EPS -28c vs -22c forecast, revenue $259M vs $262M estimate
- Production guidance lowered to 18-20K from 20K — Wall Street views this as a reduction
- Magnet supply chain issue was embarrassing for a company claiming to be a tech play
- No new partnerships announced — Uber was the only deal and it's already known
- Uber deal will target midsize (not Gravity) for late 2026 delivery — new information
- Management team sounded disinterested; two top analysts (Adam Jonas, John Murphy) didn't even join the call
- Dilution expected Q3/Q4 — 3/4 billion shares diluted in the past year alone
- Capex reduced from 1.4B to 1.1-1.2B — signals business slowdown
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Midsize timeline maintained for late 2026 production start
- Uber confirmed they reached out to Lucid — validates technology
- Gravity Touring mentioned for Q1 2026 when asked by analyst
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Aug 6, 2025, 12:36 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- unverified_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
unverified stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before0.69
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before21.85
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-08-07
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeDeadline passed. Only 13% progress toward target $20.7. Price: $21.70.
AfterThe stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
- Outcome price
Before21.7
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterUnverified stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforemiss
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $2.07
- Stated deadline as extracted
- Aug 7, 2025
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.