LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$20.70
Said $2.07· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“my prediction for Wednesday, how the market's going to take the earnings, I feel like it will touch this 207. So, that's going to be the next strong support.”@ 13:48 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishThe speaker does a full Q2 earnings breakdown and concludes it was one of Lucid's worst ever. The company triple-missed estimates, lowered production guidance to 18-20K, had supply chain issues due to magnets, showed a lack of meaningful new catalysts (no new partnerships beyond Uber), and management sounded unprepared. Dilution is expected tail-end Q3/Q4. Positives include maintaining midsize timeline for late 2026 and Uber confirming they reached out to Lucid.
Key arguments
- Triple miss: EPS -28c vs -22c forecast, revenue $259M vs $262M estimate
- Production guidance lowered to 18-20K from 20K — Wall Street views this as a reduction
- Magnet supply chain issue was embarrassing for a company claiming to be a tech play
- No new partnerships announced — Uber was the only deal and it's already known
- Uber deal will target midsize (not Gravity) for late 2026 delivery — new information
- Management team sounded disinterested; two top analysts (Adam Jonas, John Murphy) didn't even join the call
- Dilution expected Q3/Q4 — 3/4 billion shares diluted in the past year alone
- Capex reduced from 1.4B to 1.1-1.2B — signals business slowdown
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Midsize timeline maintained for late 2026 production start
- Uber confirmed they reached out to Lucid — validates technology
- Gravity Touring mentioned for Q1 2026 when asked by analyst
The call
- Date said
- Aug 6, 2025
- Deadline
- Aug 7, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $21.85
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $21.70
- Return
- +0.7%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 13% progress toward target $20.7. Price: $21.70.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 13% progress toward target $20.7. Price: $21.70.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.