LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$11.89
“Lucid could really be testing this 50-day moving average sooner rather than later. So that's sitting at 11.89.”@ 9:04 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedAnalysts revised Q4 revenue estimates up to $473.08M from $468M — a 40% increase over the prior record Q3 result of $336M. Tesla's AH results (missed revenue but beat margins) provide a positive template for Lucid if it can show margin improvement. However, Powell signaled no March rate cut, sending the market and speculative stocks like Lucid lower. Big money put options ($4.7M on $15 put, $2.6M on $12 put, Feb 20 expiry) suggest institutional bearish near-term positioning. The speaker still believes Lucid could test the 50-day MA (~$11.89) if data cooperates.
Key arguments
- Q4 revenue consensus of $473M would be 40% increase over record Q3 of $336M
- Tesla beats on margins — positive template for Lucid if similar margins shown
- Powell signals March rate cut probability dropped to 13.5% — near-term negative
- Big money bearish put positioning: $4.7M on $15 put, $2.6M on $12 put (Feb 20 expiry)
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Market-wide institutional selling driven by Powell's hawkish signal
- Large bearish options flow suggests institutional near-term bearish bet
The call
- Date said
- Jan 28, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $10.91
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $5.87
- Return
- -46.2%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $11.89. Price: $5.87.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $11.89. Price: $5.87.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.