The call, on record
LCID bullish call
Target Price
$11.89
Quoted text as recorded“Lucid could really be testing this 50-day moving average sooner rather than later. So that's sitting at 11.89.”@ 9:04 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Jan 28, 2026
- Latest provider quote
- $2.98As of Nov 5, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC. May be delayed; does not resolve this call.
- Interpreted confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
Tracking the outcome
- Status
- pending
- Notes
- No stated deadline is available. This call remains open without a scored outcome; its horizon label is not a deadline.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Analysts revised Q4 revenue estimates up to $473.08M from $468M — a 40% increase over the prior record Q3 result of $336M. Tesla's AH results (missed revenue but beat margins) provide a positive template for Lucid if it can show margin improvement. However, Powell signaled no March rate cut, sending the market and speculative stocks like Lucid lower. Big money put options ($4.7M on $15 put, $2.6M on $12 put, Feb 20 expiry) suggest institutional bearish near-term positioning. The speaker still believes Lucid could test the 50-day MA (~$11.89) if data cooperates.
Key arguments
- Q4 revenue consensus of $473M would be 40% increase over record Q3 of $336M
- Tesla beats on margins — positive template for Lucid if similar margins shown
- Powell signals March rate cut probability dropped to 13.5% — near-term negative
- Big money bearish put positioning: $4.7M on $15 put, $2.6M on $12 put (Feb 20 expiry)
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Market-wide institutional selling driven by Powell's hawkish signal
- Large bearish options flow suggests institutional near-term bearish bet
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Jan 28, 2026, 11:01 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:21 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- awaiting_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
awaiting stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before-46.2
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before10.91
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2026-04-28
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome explanation
BeforeHorizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $11.89. Price: $5.87.
AfterNo stated deadline is available. This call remains open without a scored outcome; its horizon label is not a deadline.
- Outcome price
Before5.87
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterAwaiting stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforemiss
Afterpending
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