Skip to content
TubeRank.
Get app
Tesla (TSLA)

The call, on record

TSLA bearish call

Recorded from Mark Spiegel’s public commentary. Review the evidence behind the call and its outcome.
TSLABearexpired
Mark SpiegelMark Spiegel

Target Price

$17

AI-extracted record · moderator reviewed. The quote is source evidence; the structured call and thesis are TubeRank’s interpretation.
Quoted text as recorded“so you're looking at I don't know 17 a share maybe I mean that's what that's what the damn thing is generously worth because it's not really growing much anymore”@ 24:32 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗

Our interpretation

Source published
Mar 1, 2023
Interpreted confidence
high
Specificity
specific

Why this call is unscored

Status
expired
Notes
No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.

How outcomes are decided · Report an error

Email me when TSLA calls resolve

When a tracked TSLA call is scored — hit, miss or partial — we’ll email you the result. No account needed.

Used only for these updates. Privacy

Follow Mark Spiegel in the iPhone appEvery TSLA call on file

Evidence and source

Decade Long Asset Bubble to Burst? with Mark Spiegel
Published on Mar 1, 2023@ 24:32Open on YouTube

Our summary of the thesis

Strongly Bearish

Structured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.

Mark Spiegel views Tesla as absurdly overvalued at 70x earnings, arguing the company has trailing-edge technology, faces intense competition, and has had to slash prices significantly which will crush margins. He sees the stock as worth only $17-18 per share based on comparison to BMW's valuation.

Key arguments

  • Trading at 70x earnings while traditional automakers trade at 2.5-6x earnings
  • Technology now trailing-edge with competitors offering better charging, interiors, and range
  • Massive price cuts destroying profit margins - making half as much profit per car
  • Self-driving technology is 'garbage' and fraudulent marketing with fake demonstrations
  • Losing market share globally to superior competitors

Counter-arguments acknowledged

  • Retail investor loyalty and cultural attachment could provide temporary support

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

  • Speaker acknowledges uncertainty about long-term recovery timing
  • Admits central banks may resume money printing at some point, which could drive asset prices up
  • Notes this is a medium-term prediction, not a long-term forecast
  • Acknowledges bear market will likely include rallies similar to recent 6.5-week bounce
  • Recognizes stocks may not bounce back quickly even after decline

About this record

Reviewed by a moderator

AI-extracted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.

Source published
Mar 1, 2023, 5:00 PM UTC
First recorded by TubeRank
Apr 20, 2026, 9:10 AM UTC
Record last updated
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
Moderator review recorded
Not recorded
Transcript provenance
YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
Recorded analysis processor/source label
claude-sonnet-4-20250514
This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
Extraction pipeline version
v1.0.0
Outcome methodology version
2026-10-06.5
Outcome reason code
expired_without_stated_deadline
Publication is when the video was released; recording is when TubeRank added this call. They are not interchangeable. Legacy records can lack version and observation metadata. Dates are shown in UTC.
Recent record changes 4 shown

  1. Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC

    corrected

    Outcome methodology version

    Before2026-10-06.4

    After2026-10-06.5

  2. Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC

    corrected

    Outcome methodology version

    Before2026-10-06.2

    After2026-10-06.4

  3. Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC

    corrected

    Outcome methodology version

    Before2026-10-06.1

    After2026-10-06.2

  4. Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC

    expired without stated deadline

    Outcome methodology version

    BeforeNot recorded

    After2026-10-06.1

    Direction-adjusted price movement (%)

    Before-97.57

    AfterNot recorded

    Reference price

    Before202.77

    AfterNot recorded

    Recorded outcome date

    Before2026-04-20

    After2026-10-06

    Outcome explanation

    BeforeMissing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.

    AfterNo stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.

    Outcome price

    Before400.62

    AfterNot recorded

    Outcome reason

    BeforeNot recorded

    AfterExpired without stated deadline

Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.

Methodology and limitationsReport a correction
Stored outcome evidence
Stored reference price
Not recorded
Not recorded · provider not recorded
Target as extracted
$17
Stated deadline as extracted
None recorded
Recorded outcome date
Oct 6, 2026
Outcome price observation
Not recorded
Not recorded · provider not recorded

Stored explanation

No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.

Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.

Why we interpreted the confidence this way

Detailed valuation analysis comparing to BMW, strong conviction with large short position

View full video analysisView YouTuber profile