TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$727
“I'm saying the fair value share price for Tesla this year in December is 2727 a little adjusted for some things. So Tesla should be at $727.”@ 12:35 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is entering a new phase with three major verticals (EVs/energy, robotaxis, and Optimus humanoid robots) that will create massive value. The robotaxi business will overtake the core business by 2028, while Optimus will scale to enormous proportions in the 2030s.
Key arguments
- Robotaxis will replace car ownership at scale, especially in metropolitan areas
- Tesla's energy storage solutions can rapidly expand national grid capacity
- Optimus humanoid robots represent a multi-trillion dollar opportunity
- Tesla is uniquely positioned in utility-scale battery deployment
- Clear scaling path from 40K robotaxis in 2026 to millions by early 2030s
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Regulatory limitations in some states like California
- Operational complexity of deploying autonomous vehicles at scale
- FSD needs to be 10x-100x safer than humans before full deployment
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator acknowledges difficulty in predicting when markets understand valuations
- Distinguishes between fair value and stock price predictions
- Notes that many Wall Street analysts (including Cathie Wood/ARK) are not properly factoring in Optimus upside
The call
- Date said
- Nov 10, 2025
- Timeframe
- by December 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $445.23
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $449.72
- Return
- +12.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 15% progress toward target $727. Price: $449.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 15% progress toward target $727. Price: $449.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Presents as fair value calculation but acknowledges market may not reach this level