TSLABullunverifiable
Solving The Money Problem“I have a funny feeling that at some point during the year this stock market May realize that it has collectively made a slight error of judgment in assessing the fair value of certain Securities including Tesla”@ 0:04 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe YouTuber believes Tesla is massively undervalued and will widen its lead over EV competitors in 2023 due to its cost leadership, scale advantages, and self-sustaining business model. He disagrees with Morgan Stanley's conservative estimates and expects Tesla to significantly outperform Wall Street expectations.
Key arguments
- Tesla is the only EV company making money on vehicles outside of China
- Tesla has demonstrated scale and cost leadership throughout the value chain
- Tesla will benefit from $7,500 tax credit that market has forgotten about
- Current valuation shows gigantic disconnect from intrinsic value
- Tesla's lead is accelerating while competitors are still trying to ramp volume production
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- EV supply may exceed demand for first time
- Increasing competition from legacy OEMs and startups
- China production disruptions due to COVID
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges he could be wrong about the market's mispricing
- Notes that Morgan Stanley's thesis about EV supply exceeding demand 'is wrong' and 'not going to age well'
- Recognizes the prediction is being put on record to assess how it ages over time
- Implies uncertainty about the supply-demand inversion narrative despite making bullish Tesla prediction
The call
- Date said
- Jan 1, 2023
- Timeframe
- at some point during 2023
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2023
- Price at prediction
- $123.18
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Uses hedge language 'funny feeling' and 'may realize' but shows personal conviction by continuing to buy