TSLABearhit
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$1,877
“the valuation is only $1,877 per share in 2030. That is my hard bare case.”@ 20:08 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is entering a forcing function of robotaxi scale, Optimus humanoid deployment, and AI6 chip ramp with Samsung, which justifies a reset valuation model where even the bear case ($1,877) still represents a solid multiple and the base case projects $8,000 per share by 2030.
Key arguments
- Robotaxi will be in over 10 metropolitan areas by end of 2025.
- Optimus version 3 humanoid is brewing and likely to launch around December.
- AI6 chip with Samsung ($16.5B initial deal) will build Tesla's own real-world inference chip.
- Q3 2025 will be strong due to tax credit expiration driving rush demand; affordable sub-$30K models launch October 1 to offset Q4 credit loss.
- Base case projects 4 million robotaxis deployed by 2030, 147 million by 2040.
- Free cash flow projected at $235B on $500B revenue by 2030 in base case.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Bull case 6.8M robotaxis by 2030 is possible but not likely.
- Bull case 2.6M Optimus install base by 2030 is stretching the possible.
- Bear case assumes massive competition and slow Tesla execution.
The call
- Date said
- Aug 22, 2025
- Timeframe
- 2030 bear case
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Price at prediction
- $340.01
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $340.01
- Return
- 0.0%
- Notes
- Target ≤$1877 reached on 2025-08-22. Price: $340.01. Return: 0.0%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$1877 reached on 2025-08-22. Price: $340.01. Return: 0.0%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Host frames this as a reasonable bad case, not his expectation.