TSLABullunverifiable
Curious Pejjy“I think if Tesla doubles from now, there's going to be another stock split.”@ 0:14 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is positioned for explosive growth through 2032 driven by robotaxis, humanoid bots, and energy storage scaling. The YouTuber expects massive revenue growth from $101B in 2025 to nearly $700B by 2032, with operating margins expanding from 7% to 30%.
Key arguments
- Robotaxi business will generate $200B revenue and $73B profits by 2032
- Humanoid bot production scaling to 4 million units by 2032 at $20k each
- Energy business growing to $74B revenue with 28% margins
- FSD adoption increasing vehicle margins significantly
- Conservative vehicle delivery estimates still show massive growth
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- High current PE ratio may not be justified by near-term earnings
- Market crashes or geopolitical events could disrupt timeline
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator describes themselves as 'a conservative guy' with conservative modeling assumptions
- Projections extend to 2032 with multiple speculative variables
- FSD revenue modeling methodology differs from historical approaches due to Tesla's current reporting structure
- Delivery projections (5.7M by 2030) are intentionally conservative estimates
The call
- Date said
- Sep 28, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $443.21
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Clear directional view but conditional on doubling