TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$400
“I think it's very likely going to go up to 400 again.”@ 12:41 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTariff-driven drop is temporary; asymmetric trade pressure forces Canada/Mexico to cave, and June robotaxi launch remains the dominant catalyst supporting $11,700 long-term target.
Key arguments
- Trump's asymmetric tariff leverage forces Mexico/Canada to cave within days.
- Palantir earnings confirm AI bull market backdrop.
- Robotaxi launch in June highly likely; any 1-2 month delay is immaterial.
- Long-term DCF price target $11,700 by 2030 yields ~90% annualized return.
- Europe tariff risk lower due to weaker US leverage.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Momentum narrative broken short-term after tariff scare.
- Stock may lag and fail to return to $420 quickly.
- Leveraged/options traders vulnerable to further drops.
- Canadian politicians targeting Elon adds noise.
The call
- Date said
- Feb 3, 2025
- Timeframe
- short-term, within the week
- Deadline
- Feb 10, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $383.68
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $350.73
- Return
- -8.6%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $400. Price: $350.73.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $400. Price: $350.73.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Jo says it's very likely but acknowledges momentum narrative is broken.