LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$34.40
Said $3.44· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I do feel for this week it'll be between this R2 and this R1. So 331 to 344. I do feel like it'll be somewhere within that range”@ 8:51 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishWith 70,000 units of secured demand (50K Saudi + 20K Uber), Lucid has a built-in growth floor of 10-15% annually even with zero organic customers. Tesla earnings are a win-win scenario due to Uber deal providing independent demand. A gamma squeeze is possible with 50,000 open interest at the $3 strike requiring ~9M shares of market maker coverage.
Key arguments
- 70,000 units of secured demand (50K Saudi government + 20K Uber) provides floor on growth regardless of organic sales
- Tesla earnings are a win-win: good guidance lifts EVs broadly, bad guidance offset by Uber's independent demand
- Gamma squeeze possible: ~9M shares of market maker coverage needed if Lucid stays above $3
- Options consensus for week of earnings: above $4, vs bears expecting sub-$2
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Analyst consensus of $2.92 implies ~4% downside from current levels
- Bank of America $1 sell target and Morgan Stanley $3 hold remain on the books
- $5 pre-earnings is dismissed as unrealistic without additional news from Lucid
The call
- Date said
- Jul 20, 2025
- Deadline
- Jul 25, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $28.20
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $29.20
- Return
- +3.5%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 16% progress toward target $34.4. Price: $29.20.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 16% progress toward target $34.4. Price: $29.20.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.