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Lucid (LCID)

The call, on record

LCID bullish call

Recorded from Lucid City’s public commentary. Review the evidence behind the call and its outcome.
LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityLucid City

Target Price(split-adjusted)

$50

Said $5· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)

Submitted record · moderator reviewed. The quote is source evidence; the structured call and thesis are TubeRank’s interpretation.
Quoted text as recorded“as a bull Case by the end of 2025 I do realistically see around $5 to $6”@ 6:27 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗

Our interpretation

Source published
Nov 28, 2024
Extracted deadline
Dec 31, 2025
Stored reference price
$21.70
Interpreted confidence
low
Specificity
specific

How it resolved

Status
miss
Resolution price
$10.57
Direction-adjusted price move
-51.3%

A comparison of price observations, not a trading return. Excludes fees, dividends, spread and execution costs.

Notes
The full target was not reached in 272 completed regular-session high/low bars. No edge-day threshold crossing was present. Final close: $10.57; 0% of the distance toward $50. Extended-hours trades are outside this evidence.

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Evidence and source

2025 Year End Predictions for Lucid │ Lucid's BULL and BEAR Case
Published on Nov 28, 2024@ 6:27Open on YouTube

Our summary of the thesis

Mixed

Structured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.

The speaker's 2025 year-end prediction is bimodal: either $5-6 (bull case, if Gravity ramps to 22K+, a DOE loan alleviates dilution, and possible partnerships materialize) or $1 (bear case, if production targets disappoint and further dilution accelerates). There is no expected middle ground at $2.50-$4. Analyst consensus for 2025 production is ~22K vehicles implying $1.74B revenue, but real outcome could be 12-30K range.

Key arguments

  • Bull case: $5-$6 year-end 2025 on ~22K deliveries, Gravity demand, DOE loan, and potential partnership revenue
  • DOE loan (like Rivian's $6.6B) would significantly reduce dilution pressure if Lucid applied
  • Gravity is the primary 2025 catalyst; lower-priced second variant expected late 2025 could also be bullish
  • European expansion and UAE market deepening should support demand trajectory
  • Analyst consensus is 22K production; speaker thinks 12-15K more realistic near-term

Counter-arguments acknowledged

  • Bear case: $1 if production disappoints, dilution continues, and NASDAQ deficiency triggers reverse split
  • Management has been 100% wrong on every future financial forecast
  • Cash burn of ~$1.4B expected in 2025 requires ongoing dilution or DOE loan

About this record

Reviewed by a moderator

Submitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.

Source published
Nov 28, 2024, 3:30 PM UTC
First recorded by TubeRank
Apr 20, 2026, 5:42 PM UTC
Record last updated
Oct 19, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC
Moderator review recorded
Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
Transcript provenance
YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
Recorded analysis processor/source label
manual_claude_session
This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
Submission path version
manual_v1
Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
Outcome methodology version
2026-10-18.1
Outcome reason code
deadline_missed_ohlc
Publication is when the video was released; recording is when TubeRank added this call. They are not interchangeable. Legacy records can lack version and observation metadata. Dates are shown in UTC.
Recent record changes 7 shown

  1. Oct 19, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC

    deadline missed ohlc

    Evaluation kind

    BeforeNot recorded

    Aftertouch

    Outcome methodology version

    Before2026-10-15.1

    After2026-10-18.1

    Direction-adjusted price movement (%)

    BeforeNot recorded

    After-51.29

    Recorded outcome date

    Before2026-10-16

    After2025-12-31

    Outcome explanation

    BeforeThe deadline passed without an observed crossing. Daily closes cannot exclude an intraday touch or prove a boundary held; complete intraday/high-low evidence is required for this claim.

    AfterThe full target was not reached in 272 completed regular-session high/low bars. No edge-day threshold crossing was present. Final close: $10.57; 0% of the distance toward $50. Extended-hours trades are outside this evidence.

    Outcome observation time

    BeforeNot recorded

    After2025-12-31T00:00:00+00:00

    Outcome price

    BeforeNot recorded

    After10.57

    Outcome price source

    BeforeNot recorded

    Afteryahoo_daily_ohlc

    Outcome reason

    BeforeInsufficient price coverage

    AfterDeadline missed ohlc

    Outcome status

    Beforeunverifiable

    Aftermiss

  2. Oct 16, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC

    corrected

    Outcome methodology version

    Before2026-10-06.5

    After2026-10-15.1

    Recorded outcome date

    Before2026-10-06

    After2026-10-16

  3. Oct 6, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC

    corrected

    Outcome methodology version

    Before2026-10-06.4

    After2026-10-06.5

  4. Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC

    corrected

    Outcome methodology version

    Before2026-10-06.2

    After2026-10-06.4

  5. Oct 6, 2026, 4:01 AM UTC

    corrected

    Outcome methodology version

    Before2026-10-06.1

    After2026-10-06.2

  6. Oct 6, 2026, 3:45 AM UTC

    insufficient price coverage

    Reference price

    BeforeNot recorded

    After21.7

    Reference observation time

    BeforeNot recorded

    After2024-11-27T23:59:59.999+00:00

    Reference price source

    BeforeNot recorded

    Afteryahoo_daily

    Outcome explanation

    BeforeNo valid price observation at or before publication is available (daily reference requires the prior completed session); no reference or return is invented.

    AfterThe deadline passed without an observed crossing. Daily closes cannot exclude an intraday touch or prove a boundary held; complete intraday/high-low evidence is required for this claim.

    Outcome reason

    BeforeMissing reference price

    AfterInsufficient price coverage

  7. Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC

    missing reference price

    Outcome methodology version

    BeforeNot recorded

    After2026-10-06.1

    Direction-adjusted price movement (%)

    Before-51.51

    AfterNot recorded

    Reference price

    Before21.8

    AfterNot recorded

    Recorded outcome date

    Before2025-12-31

    After2026-10-06

    Outcome explanation

    BeforeDeadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $50. Price: $10.57.

    AfterNo valid price observation at or before publication is available (daily reference requires the prior completed session); no reference or return is invented.

    Outcome price

    Before10.57

    AfterNot recorded

    Outcome reason

    BeforeNot recorded

    AfterMissing reference price

    Outcome status

    Beforemiss

    Afterunverifiable

Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 8 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.

Methodology and limitationsReport a correction
Stored outcome evidence
Stored reference price
$21.70
Nov 27, 2024, 11:59 PM UTC · yahoo_daily
Target as extracted
$5
Stated deadline as extracted
Dec 31, 2025
Recorded outcome date
Dec 31, 2025
Outcome price observation
$10.57
Dec 31, 2025, 12:00 AM UTC · yahoo_daily_ohlc

Stored explanation

The full target was not reached in 272 completed regular-session high/low bars. No edge-day threshold crossing was present. Final close: $10.57; 0% of the distance toward $50. Extended-hours trades are outside this evidence.

Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.

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