LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$50
Said $5· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“as a bull Case by the end of 2025 I do realistically see around $5 to $6”@ 6:27 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker's 2025 year-end prediction is bimodal: either $5-6 (bull case, if Gravity ramps to 22K+, a DOE loan alleviates dilution, and possible partnerships materialize) or $1 (bear case, if production targets disappoint and further dilution accelerates). There is no expected middle ground at $2.50-$4. Analyst consensus for 2025 production is ~22K vehicles implying $1.74B revenue, but real outcome could be 12-30K range.
Key arguments
- Bull case: $5-$6 year-end 2025 on ~22K deliveries, Gravity demand, DOE loan, and potential partnership revenue
- DOE loan (like Rivian's $6.6B) would significantly reduce dilution pressure if Lucid applied
- Gravity is the primary 2025 catalyst; lower-priced second variant expected late 2025 could also be bullish
- European expansion and UAE market deepening should support demand trajectory
- Analyst consensus is 22K production; speaker thinks 12-15K more realistic near-term
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Bear case: $1 if production disappoints, dilution continues, and NASDAQ deficiency triggers reverse split
- Management has been 100% wrong on every future financial forecast
- Cash burn of ~$1.4B expected in 2025 requires ongoing dilution or DOE loan
The call
- Date said
- Nov 28, 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $21.80
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $10.57
- Return
- -51.5%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $50. Price: $10.57.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $50. Price: $10.57.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.