The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$25
Said $2.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“if Peter just says hey we're going to be demand driven and doesn't give specifics then I would agree with the Bears that we are going to see sub 250”@ 5:34 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Feb 10, 2025
- Extracted deadline
- Feb 28, 2025
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored: condition
- Notes
- The claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BullishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Shorts have returned for five consecutive days (574K today) while volume remains low and the stock is essentially flat. LEAP 2025 conference in Riyadh is providing positive visibility for Lucid. The speaker warns that management must guide at least 25,000 production units for 2025 and be specific about Gravity ramp — vague guidance like 'demand-driven' production targets will result in sub-$2.50 stock price. Options bulls targeting $3.50 for earnings week.
Key arguments
- Five consecutive days of short returns — longest streak in 6+ months
- Lucid's LEAP 2025 presence in Riyadh with positive booth and engagement
- Options bulls targeting $3.50 for earnings week
- Utilization 93.5% — shorts are nearly tapped out
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid needs to be specific about Gravity — 'demand-driven' guidance will be punished
- No gravities spotted in recent facility flyovers
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Feb 10, 2025, 6:17 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:34 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- unverified_condition
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
unverified condition
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before18.59
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before27.7
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-02-26
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeTarget ≤$25 reached on 2025-02-26. Price: $22.55. Return: +18.6%.
AfterThe claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
- Outcome price
Before22.55
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterUnverified condition
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $2.50
- Stated deadline as extracted
- Feb 28, 2025
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.