LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$25
Said $2.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“you might see a very nice recovery back to that 250 or potentially even higher”@ 5:02 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedLucid is down 15% in 5 days with no news — potentially driven by the inability to configure Lucid Air on the website and heavy discounting raising demand fears. The speaker sees this as either a buying opportunity given historical rapid recoveries from $2 to $2.50 in 5 days, or a sign of genuine demand problems. Shorts are barely increasing (118K shares) suggesting the drop is institution-led.
Key arguments
- Website configuration error preventing Air orders could signal inventory clearing or demand weakness
- Up to $315K in discounts/credits offered — a potential demand red flag
- Historically Lucid has recovered from $2 to $2.50 in 5 trading days
- Shorts only slightly increasing (118K) — institutional selling is the main driver
- Short interest at 383.99M shares (31.14% of float)
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Could just be normal website maintenance or a shift to focus on Gravity
- Good piece of news could trigger a rapid recovery given extreme oversold conditions
The call
- Date said
- Jun 3, 2025
- Deadline
- Jun 10, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $21.90
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $21.90
- Return
- 0.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $25. Price: $21.90.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $25. Price: $21.90.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.