TSLABullexpired
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$713
“Tesla in August 2025, which is now, is worth $713 per share.”@ 11:55 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla's discounted-cash-flow fair value as of August 2025 is $713 per share versus a trading price near $360, implying a 50% discount and approximately 98% upside based on modeled future revenue streams from Optimus humanoid robots and the robotaxi fleet.
Key arguments
- Fair value derives from predicting 10-year free cash flow then discounting at cost of capital.
- Optimus humanoid is projected at 100,000 units sold in 2028.
- Robotaxi fleet projected at 590,000 on road with 400,000 added in 2028.
- Current price ~$360 implies 50% discount to fair value $713.
- Price-earnings ratios are meaningless for high-growth AGI companies.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Some analysts like Gary Black believe retail investors overweight product and underweight valuation.
- Stocks can trade exuberantly above fair value for extended periods.
The call
- Date said
- Aug 15, 2025
- Timeframe
- fair value as of August 2025
- Price at prediction
- $330.56
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- expired
- Resolution price
- $417.26
- Return
- +26.2%
- Notes
- Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $417.26.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $417.26.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Fair value from host's DCF model; not a dated price-target prediction.