LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$18.90
Said $1.89· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“the ellite wave te teal was projecting for it to hit between that $180 to $1.97 range and it has a pivot point of $276”@ 5:58 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishWith the election, Fed rate decision, and Q3 earnings all in the same week, Lucid faces 14.1% implied move volatility. Elliott Wave projects a decline to $1.80-$1.97 target range unless earnings provide strong forward guidance. Historically, Lucid has always missed on forward guidance, and retail's questions at earnings appear to be softball questions planted by management.
Key arguments
- Elliott Wave projecting $1.80-$1.97 range with pivot at $2.76
- 14.1% implied move on earnings — binary outcome
- Options consensus: Bulls only see ~$2.50 upside; Bears see sub-$2
- Lucid historically provides bad future guidance every quarter
- 19.66% of float shorted going into week; broker paying negative cost-of-borrow
- Trump election win likely to hurt EV sector broadly
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stock could rally significantly if Gravity demand guidance is positive
- 48.8% YoY revenue growth expected — underlying business improving
- Analyst consensus target of $3.35 represents 38.64% upside
The call
- Date said
- Nov 3, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $22.40
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $27.60
- Return
- -23.2%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $18.9. Price: $27.60.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $18.9. Price: $27.60.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.