The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$18.90
Said $1.89· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“the ellite wave te teal was projecting for it to hit between that $180 to $1.97 range and it has a pivot point of $276”@ 5:58 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Nov 3, 2024
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- expired
- Notes
- No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
With the election, Fed rate decision, and Q3 earnings all in the same week, Lucid faces 14.1% implied move volatility. Elliott Wave projects a decline to $1.80-$1.97 target range unless earnings provide strong forward guidance. Historically, Lucid has always missed on forward guidance, and retail's questions at earnings appear to be softball questions planted by management.
Key arguments
- Elliott Wave projecting $1.80-$1.97 range with pivot at $2.76
- 14.1% implied move on earnings — binary outcome
- Options consensus: Bulls only see ~$2.50 upside; Bears see sub-$2
- Lucid historically provides bad future guidance every quarter
- 19.66% of float shorted going into week; broker paying negative cost-of-borrow
- Trump election win likely to hurt EV sector broadly
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stock could rally significantly if Gravity demand guidance is positive
- 48.8% YoY revenue growth expected — underlying business improving
- Analyst consensus target of $3.35 represents 38.64% upside
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Nov 3, 2024, 2:00 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:42 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- expired_without_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
expired without stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before-23.21
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before22.4
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-02-01
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeHorizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $18.9. Price: $27.60.
AfterNo stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
- Outcome price
Before27.6
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterExpired without stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforemiss
Afterexpired
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $1.89
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.