LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$9.23
“If they miss on the 18,000, then anticipate that 923 most likely to be kind of in the foreseeable future.”@ 8:40 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishOn December 31, 2025, Lucid hits a new all-time low of $10.64 while broader market sells off on FOMC minutes signaling no rush to cut rates. New complaints about the Gravity (key fob recognition, navigation glitches, safety alerts) continue despite a prior software update — a damaging signal for a company that claims quality as its differentiator. Short interest at a new all-time high (35.71%), with insiders possibly lending shares.
Key arguments
- New all-time low on last day of 2025 — stock down 65% for the year
- Gravity owners report ongoing issues (key fob recognition, nav glitches, safety alerts) despite prior fix
- New all-time high short interest at 35.71%; possible insider share lending inflating shares on loan
- FOMC minutes signal no rush to cut — market throwing tantrum, hitting speculative stocks
- Institutions not buying; four transactions on secondary market — all buys but very small scale
- If Lucid misses 18,000 production target, speaker expects drop to ~$9.23
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid hitting year-end production target would be status quo minimum to stabilize
The call
- Date said
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $10.57
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $9.15
- Return
- +13.4%
- Notes
- Target ≤$9.23 reached on 2026-03-30. Price: $9.15. Return: +13.4%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$9.23 reached on 2026-03-30. Price: $9.15. Return: +13.4%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.