TSLABullunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“they're introducing FSD full self-driving by end of the year of 2024 we will have full self-driving across multiple Nations and continents”@ 2:42 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla's extraordinary success is built on three foundational secrets: a simple first-principles master plan, a devoted community of customers/YouTubers/investors who defend the company, and pioneer capital where Elon personally led four private funding rounds investing ~$70M himself. FSD launches by end of 2024 and humanoid robots will unlock a $30 trillion labor market.
Key arguments
- Tesla Master Plan was simple and focused: sports car -> affordable car -> very affordable car
- Master plan community (customers, YouTubers like Galileo Russell, Herbert Ong, Steven Mark Ryan, and investors) defends Tesla against mainstream media and stabilizes stock price
- Elon personally led all four private funding rounds (2004, 2005, 2006, 2008) putting in $70M of his own money
- Full Self-Driving rolls out across multiple nations and continents by end of 2024
- Tesla humanoid robots will address a $30 trillion labor market
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Mainstream media and Wall Street analysts persistently criticize Tesla
- Early Model S had fires and manufacturing quality issues (panel gaps)
- Model 3 had manufacturing delays and quality issues in 2018
The call
- Date said
- May 22, 2024
- Timeframe
- end of 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $180.11
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker says 'we will have' with high conviction