The call, on record
LCID bullish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$44
Said $4.40· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“that might be that big adjustment that does happen with Lucid that kind of either propels it back into the 440 Plus because it always struggles with that 440 or be that final dagger to kind of break it below that $3 Mark”@ 7:21 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Sep 16, 2024
- Interpreted confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- expired
- Notes
- No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
The speaker highlights that Q2 13F filings showed hedge funds still held 4.6M Lucid call options (down 30% but still significant). A Chinese Lotus SUV priced at $229K USD puts the Gravity's ~$80K starting price in compelling context. Shorts at 29.66% (increasing 1.19M today) are trying to push LCID below the $3.79 pivot. The speaker sees upcoming earnings as the major make-or-break catalyst - could push to $4.40+ or break below $3.
Key arguments
- Hedge funds still hold 4.6M call options as of Q2 - institutional bullish sentiment remains
- Chinese Lotus SUV at $229K makes Gravity's ~$80K price highly competitive
- 59% likelihood of 50bp rate cut for September 18th, boosting growth stock sentiment
- 72% of options flow today bullish - strong signal despite short activity
- Short score at 84.59 - high likelihood of short squeeze
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Hedge fund call option holdings down 30% from prior quarter
- Retail investors selling out - net negative retail flows
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Sep 16, 2024, 3:23 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- expired_without_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
expired without stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before-27.59
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before37.7
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2024-12-15
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeHorizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $44. Price: $27.30.
AfterNo stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
- Outcome price
Before27.3
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterExpired without stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforemiss
Afterexpired
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $4.40
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.