LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$44
Said $4.40· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“that might be that big adjustment that does happen with Lucid that kind of either propels it back into the 440 Plus because it always struggles with that 440 or be that final dagger to kind of break it below that $3 Mark”@ 7:21 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker highlights that Q2 13F filings showed hedge funds still held 4.6M Lucid call options (down 30% but still significant). A Chinese Lotus SUV priced at $229K USD puts the Gravity's ~$80K starting price in compelling context. Shorts at 29.66% (increasing 1.19M today) are trying to push LCID below the $3.79 pivot. The speaker sees upcoming earnings as the major make-or-break catalyst - could push to $4.40+ or break below $3.
Key arguments
- Hedge funds still hold 4.6M call options as of Q2 - institutional bullish sentiment remains
- Chinese Lotus SUV at $229K makes Gravity's ~$80K price highly competitive
- 59% likelihood of 50bp rate cut for September 18th, boosting growth stock sentiment
- 72% of options flow today bullish - strong signal despite short activity
- Short score at 84.59 - high likelihood of short squeeze
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Hedge fund call option holdings down 30% from prior quarter
- Retail investors selling out - net negative retail flows
The call
- Date said
- Sep 16, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $37.70
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $27.30
- Return
- -27.6%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $44. Price: $27.30.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $44. Price: $27.30.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.