ELFBullpending
Financial EducationTarget Price
$400
“We're talking about a stock price that's a $400 stock come 2030. 400 plus, let's call it, right?”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishJeremy frames ELF as a long-term compounder driven by the strength of its three brands (e.l.f., Rhode, Naturium), expanding retail distribution, and future margin expansion. He lays out both a base case and bull case price target for 2030 based on his own revenue and margin projections.
Key arguments
- Brand strength allows e.l.f. to launch new categories like hair care successfully
- Rhode is described as the hottest brand in beauty with exclusivity driving demand
- Naturium is scaling in body wash
- Multiple growth levers: pricing, velocity, new categories, margin expansion
- Company only $5B market cap versus L'Oreal's $232B, implying long runway
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Short term the stock is volatile ('the stock's going to be what the stock's going to be')
- Reaching L'Oreal-scale market cap could take 15-20 years and is uncertain
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator emphasizes personal portfolio positions and past performance
- Real estate market commentary acknowledges current headwinds with rising mortgage rates
- Creator mentions uncertainty about future direction of specific stocks (e.g., 'where that stock's going from here')
- Video focuses on personal investment decisions rather than universal recommendations
The call
- Date said
- Sep 11, 2026
- Timeframe
- by 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Price at prediction
- $95.76
- Current price (live)
- $102.12$297.88 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Presented as his bull-case scenario with specific price and date, though it's explicitly a 'bull case' branch of his model rather than his single best guess.
Source
My STOCK Just went Insane‼️
Said on Sep 11, 2026Open on YouTube ↗