LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$40
Said $4· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“you see a consensus now for it to be above $4 because of course Mark really hyping it up”@ 4:58 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid launched hands-free drive assist and hands-free lane change — the first step toward higher autonomy levels, delivered within management's stated roadmap. The CEO's Bloomberg interview hinted at very positive surprises at the August 5 earnings call including 20,000+ orders details and midsize platform updates. Options consensus shows $4+ for the week of earnings with 78% of options activity bullish.
Key arguments
- Hands-free drive assist delivered within the roadmap timeframe Mark stated in Q4 earnings — confirms execution
- CEO in Bloomberg interview: 'stay tuned for August, you'll be pleasantly surprised' on 20,000+ orders
- CEO also hinted at midsize platform update at August 5 earnings
- Options: 78% bullish, consensus at $4+ for week of August 5 earnings
- Shorts returned 632,000 shares on a day when they were initially adding 3.8M — capitulated
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- CPI came in hotter than expected at 2.7% YoY — dampening near-term market optimism
- Stochastic RSI overbought — stock is at inflection point between 50-day (234) and 100-day (236) moving averages
- Previous Lucid executives over-hyped launches that underdelivered under Peter's tenure
The call
- Date said
- Jul 15, 2025
- Deadline
- Aug 8, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $23.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $21.30
- Return
- -8.6%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $40. Price: $21.30.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $40. Price: $21.30.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.