LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$26.10
Said $2.61· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“whenever Lucid does go below that 50-day moving average historically goes down about 20 to 30 to 40% so yeah is kind of extreme”@ 9:24 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedFed rate decision (no cut expected but Powell's tone matters), Tesla earnings, GDP, and PCE data all converge this week creating extreme volatility risk. The $2 RBC hold rating from Tom could create Monday morning weakness. Short interest at 19.29% is relatively elevated. The 50-day MA at $2.61 is the absolute floor — historically, breaks below it lead to 20-40% declines within weeks. The speaker leans slightly bullish but acknowledges LCID could only feasibly reach $2.90 given Trump's blanket over EV growth.
Key arguments
- Multiple macro catalysts (Fed, GDP, PCE, Tesla earnings) converge for maximum volatility this week
- 50-day MA historically a pivotal level — break below leads to 20-40% decline based on prior episodes
- Trump uncertainty acting as virtual ceiling on EV sector recovery — short-term pain acknowledged
- Stock very oversold technically — a good catalyst could produce a sharp upward move
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- $2 hold from RBC's Tom could add selling pressure Monday morning
- Rivian CEO openly acknowledged EV mandate removal will make next couple years challenging
The call
- Date said
- Jan 26, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $27.50
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $26.10
- Return
- +5.1%
- Notes
- Target ≤$26.1 reached on 2025-02-25. Price: $26.10. Return: +5.1%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$26.1 reached on 2025-02-25. Price: $26.10. Return: +5.1%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.