TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$7,000
“in 2030 I'm coming down from 8,000 to basically 7,000.”@ 20:49 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla DCF fair value is $700 by end-2025 and $7,000 by 2030 based on three verticals: affordable EV expansion, robo-taxi driving 1.4B free cash flow in 2026 scaling massively, and Optimus reaching 1M units by 2030 and 1.6B by 2040.
Key arguments
- Affordable Model Y expansion can 8x total addressable market at sub-$35K price.
- European affordable model has $12K price drop vs US $5K drop, boosting global demand.
- Robo-taxi inflection expected in 2026 with 1.4B free cash flow contribution, 5.2B in 2027.
- Cybercab manufacturing cost ~$15K long-term gives enormous margins.
- Leaks from Chinese suppliers suggest Tesla is preparing mass Optimus production for 2026.
- Optimus projection: 25K units 2026, 100K 2027, 1M by 2030, 1.6B by 2040.
- Fair value today is ~$640 vs current $430 stock price, a 30% discount.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- US affordable model is only $5K cheaper, disappointing investors.
- Wall Street doesn't see robo-taxi fundamentals yet.
- Some Tesla tubers think Optimus will overtake robo-taxi faster.
The call
- Date said
- Oct 16, 2025
- Timeframe
- end of 2025 fair value
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $428.75
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $449.72
- Return
- +4.9%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 8% progress toward target $700. Price: $449.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 8% progress toward target $700. Price: $449.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
This is fair value from DCF not a market price call; speaker notes the stock may or may not get there.