LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$13.35
“Elliot wave technicals right now given the circumstances is projecting for it to hit between that 1297 and 1374 range in the short term”@ 4:21 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid dropped 8.47% to a new all-time low of $15.17 as rate cut probability collapsed from 95.5% to 51.9% and management went radio silent post-earnings. The speaker criticizes five years of stock decline and says Elliott Wave technicals project a short-term move to $12.97–$13.74. Options market bears target sub-$6.
Key arguments
- Brand new all-time low at $15.17, down 8.47% on the day
- Rate cut probability collapsed from 95.5% to 51.9% in one month, removing the key macro catalyst
- Management has gone silent since earnings — no interviews, no press releases
- Management has never bought LCID stock (no transaction code P from insiders)
- Elliott Wave Technicals projects $12.97–$13.74 range in short term
- Shorts at peak increased 826,000 shares; 29.6% of free float shorted
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Benchmark analyst issued $30 buy rating
- Short score signals shorts are overextended
The call
- Date said
- Nov 13, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $15.17
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $12.91
- Return
- +14.9%
- Notes
- Target ≤$13.35 reached on 2025-11-17. Price: $12.91. Return: +14.9%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$13.35 reached on 2025-11-17. Price: $12.91. Return: +14.9%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.