TSLABullunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“I put a 90% plus probability that by end of this year we have 10,000 cyber caps in the wild.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe speaker reduced Tesla holdings tactically before disappointing July 2026 earnings, correctly avoided the crash to $300, and has now re-entered fully around $325-$340. He remains extremely bullish long-term, arguing the stock is undervalued relative to progress in energy, automotive, Optimus and Cybercab, and expects a near-term recovery toward prior highs as institutional buyers accumulate shares.
Key arguments
- Institutional ownership rose roughly 20-25% (from about 1.8 million to 2.2 million shares), signaling smart money is accumulating despite poor retail sentiment.
- Tesla's core businesses (automotive, energy/megapack) are improving even though the stock is down from $490 to around $340.
- Cybercab production is ramping toward roughly 2,000 units per month, which the speaker sees as evidence of a real commercial plan despite slow deployment.
- Robotaxi/Cybercab represents a far larger scalable TAM long-term than SpaceX's terrestrial compute business, making Tesla's growth story more attractive.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- The pace of FSD/robotaxi deployment has been slower than projected in December 2025, causing the stock to be re-rated down from about $490.
- He estimates only a 40-50% chance that 10,000 Cybercabs will be commercially deployed by year end, even though he is 90%+ confident 10,000 will exist 'in the wild.'
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Speaker acknowledges short-term tactical bearishness despite long-term bullishness
- Past performance cited (2019 Tesla call) does not guarantee future results
- Market conditions were described as 'shaky' during earnings period
- Speaker maintains diversified portfolio across multiple tech stocks rather than concentrated bet
The call
- Date said
- Aug 16, 2026
- Timeframe
- by end of this year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
High stated probability (90%+), but this is about fleet scale, not a stock price, so no target price is set per scale/adoption rule.
Source
Why I am BULLISH on Tesla Stock Again
Said on Aug 16, 2026Open on YouTube ↗