LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$50
Said $5· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“you're starting to see a consensus for it to be above five so a lot of optimism for that”@ 4:08 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishA strong 5.6% gain on 61.9M shares traded reflects institutional buying driven by Q4 13F filings showing increased institutional ownership, combined with FOMO ahead of February 25 earnings. Shorts returning 3.65M shares across five consecutive days — the largest single-day return — strongly signals short squeeze potential. Options bulls are now targeting $4.50-$5 for earnings week.
Key arguments
- Shorts returning 3.65M shares in one day — largest in recent memory — across 5 consecutive days
- Institution accumulation visible through 13F filings signals confidence
- Options bulls now targeting $4.50-$5 for the earnings week
- Put/call ratio trending bullish; 52% bullish options
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stock technically overbought; first sign of weakness could trigger pullback
- FOMC minutes tomorrow could cause volatility
The call
- Date said
- Feb 18, 2025
- Deadline
- Feb 28, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $34.80
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $22.20
- Return
- -36.2%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $50. Price: $22.20.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $50. Price: $22.20.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.